社会統計学　（安田三郎、海野道郎先生著）　丸善出版

#コウルマンのモデル p.175


#男女別、就職希望地
dat=matrix(c(75.5,24.5,61.9,38.1),ncol=2)

colnames(dat)=c("man","women")

rownames(dat)=c("当該町","他州の町")

alpha=0.755-0.619

ep1=0.619

ep2=0.245

n_man=4020

n_women=4134


#manの場合

q21_man=ep2

q12_man=alpha+ep1

n1t_man=function(t){

return(n_man*(q21_man)*(1-exp(-t))+exp(-t))  

}

man_data=data.frame(t=seq(0,100,0.1))%>%mutate(n1t=n1t_man(t))%>%mutate(n2t=n_man-n1t)


plot(man_data$t,man_data$n1t,xlab="time",ylab="人口:man",xlim=c(min(man_data$t),max(man_data$t)),ylim=c(min(c(man_data$n1t,man_data$n2t)),max(c(man_data$n1t,man_data$n2t))),col=2,main="man")

par(new=T)

plot(man_data$t,man_data$n2t,xlab="time",ylab="人口:man",xlim=c(min(man_data$t),max(man_data$t)),ylim=c(min(c(man_data$n1t,man_data$n2t)),max(c(man_data$n1t,man_data$n2t))),col=3,main="man")


#womenの場合

q21_women=ep1

q12_women=alpha+ep2

n1t_women=function(t){

return(n_women*(q21_women)*(1-exp(-t))+exp(-t))  

}

women_data=data.frame(t=seq(0,100,0.1))%>%mutate(n1t=n1t_women(t))%>%mutate(n2t=n_women-n1t)

plot(women_data$t,women_data$n1t,xlab="time",ylab="人口:women",xlim=c(min(women_data$t),max(women_data$t)),ylim=c(min(c(women_data$n1t,women_data$n2t)),max(c(women_data$n1t,women_data$n2t))),col=2,main="women")

par(new=T)

plot(women_data$t,women_data$n2t,xlab="time",ylab="人口:women",xlim=c(min(women_data$t),max(women_data$t)),ylim=c(min(c(women_data$n1t,women_data$n2t)),max(c(women_data$n1t,women_data$n2t))),col=3,main="women")

#ボイルの2方向加法モデル　p.185


mat=matrix(c(0.89,80,0.39,36,0.75,59,0.67,87),nrow=2)

colnames(mat)=c("リベラル派（知識あり）","保守派（知識なし）","リベラル派（知識なし）","保守派（知識なし）")

rownames(mat)=c("支持率","実数")

p11=mat[1,1];p21=mat[1,2];p12=mat[1,3];p22=mat[1,4]

n11=mat[2,1];n21=mat[2,2];n12=mat[2,3];n22=mat[2,4]

ax=((p11-p21)/(1/n11+1/n21)+(p12-p22)/(1/n12+1/n22))/(1/(1/n11+1/n21)+1/(1/n12+1/n22))

ay=((p11-p12)/(1/n11+1/n12)+(p21-p22)/(1/n21+1/n22))/(1/(1/n11+1/n12)+1/(1/n21+1/n22))

r=p22-n11*n12*n22*((p11-p12)-(p21-p22))/(n11*n12*(n21+n22)+n21*n22*(n11+n22))

s=1-(n11*(n12*n21+n21*n22+n22*n12)*p11+n12*n21*n22*(p12+p21-p22))/(n11*n21*(n12+n22)+n12*n22*(n11+n21))